금강산 총격 사건과 그 여파로 남북 관계 전망 어두워

문서번호 생성일 배포일 분 류 출 처
08SEOUL1417 2008-07-15 07:32 2011-08-30 01:44 기 밀 서울대사관
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RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 001417

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/19/2017
TAGS: KN KS PGOV

분류자: 알렉산더 버시바우 대사. 근거 1.4(b/d)

¶1. (C) SUMMARY: ROK Unification Minister Kim Ha-joong told the Ambassador that growing anger in South Korea about the DPRK response to the Mt. Kumgang shooting incident could produce further deterioration in North-South relations and perhaps even affect the Six-Party Talks. He urged the U.S. to help persuade North Korea to allow a South Korean investigative team to visit the site of the shooting. In other areas, such as economic development and implementation of summit agreements, he said the ROKG would be patient with the DPRK. Meanwhile, ROK media continued to feature stories critical of the North’s account of the Mt. Kumgang shooting, tour company Hyundai Asan, and the ROKG response. End Summary

1.(기밀) 요약: 한국 통일부 김하중 장관은 금강산 총격 사건에 대한 북한의 대응이 한국 내의 분노를 키우고 있는데 이것이 향후 남북 관계의 악화를 야기할 수 있으며, 아마도 6자 회담에도 영향을 미칠 것이라고 대사에게 말했다. 그는 남한 측 조사단이 총격 지점을 방문할 수 있게 허락 하도록 북한을 설득해 달라고 미국에 촉구했다. 그는 경제발전이나 정상 합의의 이행과 같은 타 영역에서 한국정부가 인내심을 가지고 북한을 대할 것이라고 말했다. 한편 한국의 매체들은 금강산 총격사건의 북측 해명, 여행사인 현대 아산, 그리고 한국 정부에 비판적 보도 등을 계속해서 실어냈다.
요약 끝.

 

통일부 장관이 금강산 사건의 후폭풍을 제한하도록 미국 정부에 도움을 촉구

¶2. (C) ROK Unification Minister Kim Ha-joong told the Ambassador at a July 14 meeting that, if it continues to grow, public outrage in South Korea about North Korea’s handling of the July 11 shooting of a South Korean tourist at the Mt. Kumgang resort could adversely affect long-term inter-Korean relations and even impact the Six-Party Talks. The public was already angry about the DPRK’s implausible account of the incident, its dismissive response to his Ministry’s repeated requests to allow a fact-finding investigative team to visit Mt. Kumgang, and its demand for an apology from the ROK. He said there was no indication the DPRK was prepared to address the matter constructively, adding that he did not anticipate the North would change its stance in a way that would assuage the South Korean public.

2.(기밀) 한국 통일부 장관 김하중은 7월 14일 회의에서 7월 11일 금강산 리조트의 남한 관광객 총격 사건 대처에 있어 북한이 계속해서 남한의 공분을 키운다면 장기적인 남북 관계에 역효과를 초래할 수 있고, 심지어 6자 회담에 충격이 미칠 것이라고 대사에게 말했다. 납득 되지 않는 북한의 해명, 그리고 진상 조사단의 금강산 방문을 허락해달라는 통일부의 반복된 요청과 남측의 사과 요구를 무시하는 듯한 대응에 한국은 이미 분노하고 있었다. 그는 북한이 건설적으로 그 문제를 언급할 준비가 된 조짐은 없었다고 말하면서, 북한이 남한 여론을 달랠 수 있는 방향으로 입장을 바꿀 것으로 기대하지 않았다고 덧붙였다.

 

¶3. (C) Until the DPRK cooperates with the fact-finding team, Minister Kim said, it was quite possible that public anger with North Korea would increase and inter-Korean relations would further deteriorate. There could even be a spillover effect impacting the Six-Party Talks and U.S. bilateral relations with the DPRK.

3.(기밀) 김장관은 북한이 진상규명단에 협조할때까지 북한에 대한 국민들의 분노가 팽배할 것이며 남북 관계도 더 악화될 것이라고 말했다.6자 회담 및 북미간 쌍방 관계에까지 파급 효과가 미칠 수 있을 것이다.

 

¶4. (C) Emphasizing the ROKG’s obligation to find out the truth, Minister Kim urged the U.S. to use all available channels–the New York channel included–to persuade the DPRK to cooperate with his government’s efforts to investigate the shooting. He also suggested that the U.S. indirectly hint that the North’s handling of the incident could affect the DPRK’s delisting from the State Sponsors of Terror List. The Ambassador said the U.S. shared Koreans’ outrage at the shooting incident and the North’s response, and said he would recommend that the USG press the DPRK to agree to an ROK fact-finding mission.

4.(기밀) 김 장관은 진실을 규명해야 하는 한국 정부의 의무를 강조하면서, 사용가능한 모든 채널을 동원하여 -미 국무부와 북한의 뉴욕 유엔 대표부 주재 외교관들 사이의 비공식 대화채널인 뉴욕 채널을 포함 하여- 북한이 남한 정부의 총격사건 조사 노력에 협조하도록 설득해달라고 미국에 요청했다. 그는 또한 북한의 사건 대처가 테러 지원국 삭제에 영향을 줄 수도 있음을 미국이 간접적으로 암시해야 한다고 제안했다. 대사는 미국이 총격 사건과 북한의 대응에 대한 한국국민들의 분노를 함께 하며, 한국의 진상조사 파견에 동의 하도록 북한에 압력을 가하도록 미국 정부에 권고하겠다고 말했다.

 

한국정부, 진상규명 의지 굽히지 않으나 다른 분야에 대해서는 인내심 견지

¶5. (C) Regarding post-incident ROK policy toward Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) and Kaesong City tours, Minister Kim said there were no plans to suspend activities as at Mt. Kumgang at this point, although he thought it possible that tour operator Hyundai Asan may be reevaluating safety measures for the Kaesong City tours. For the time being, the ROKG would push strongly for a fact-finding mission pertaining to the Kumgang shooting while continuing to promote economic cooperation at the KIC.

5.(기밀)김장관은 비록 관광 업체 현대 아산이 개성 관광의 안전 조치를 재검토 할 수는 있다고 보나, 개성 공단과 개성 관광에 대한, 사건 이후의 한국 정책에 대해서는 금강산의 경우처럼 활동을 중단 시킬 계획이 현재로선 없다고 했다. 당분간 한국 정부는 개성 공단에서의 경제 협력은 계속해서 진행시키면서도, 금강산 총격사건의 진상 조사단 파견을 강하게 요구할 것이다

 

¶6. (C) Minister Kim said he was not too concerned about the negative Rodong Shinmun reaction to President Lee’s July 11 National Assembly address, since it did not constitute an “official” response. He also said the ROKG was prepared to negotiate implementation of those measures in the 6/15/2000 and 10/4/2007 summit declarations that it deemed feasible. He said these negotiations would be drawn out and difficult once they began, so the ROKG would wait patiently for the DPRK to drop its demand that the ROK commit to implementation of the two agreements in their entirety and return to the negotiating table.

6.(기밀) 이명박 대통령의 7월 11 국회연설에 대한 노동신문의 부정적 반응에 대해서 그리 걱정하지는 않는다고 김장관이 말했다. 그는 또한 2000년 6월 15일과 2007년 10월 4일의 정상 발표에서 한국 정부가 그 정책들의 이행을 협상할 준비가 되어있으며 실현 가능성도 있다 본다고 말했다. 그는 이 협상들이 일단 시작이 되면 오랜 시간이 걸리고 어려울 것이므로, 한국 정부는, 북한이 남측에 대한 양협정 이행 약속 요구를 멈추고 협상 테이블로 복귀 하기를 끈기 있게 기다릴 것이라고 말했다.

 

언론과 대중의 반응

¶7. (SBU) South Korean media reports, meanwhile, continued to undermine DPRK claims pertaining to the incident. The latest eyewitness to emerge suggests the time of the shooting was at about 5:20 a.m., some 30 minutes later than originally reported. Sunrise that day was at about 5:12 a.m. An earlier eyewitness report indicated there may have been only two shots fired rather than additional warning shots as claimed by North Korea. As many have now derisively observed, the North Korean account has the victim, a middle-aged woman apparently taking a stroll down the beach, covering 3.3 kilometers in 20 minutes.

7.(민감하나 미분류) 한편 남한 언론 기사들은 사건에 대한 북한의 주장을 계속해서 반박했다. 최근에 나타난 목격자는 총격의 시간이 원래 보고된 것보다 30분 정도 늦은 약 오전 5시 20분이었다고 주장한다. 그 날 일출 시각은 약 오전 5시 12분이었다. 이전의 목격자 보고는 북한이 주장한 대로 추가 경고 사격 없이 두발의 발포만 했을지도 모른다는 것을 보여주었다. 많은 이들이 비웃으며 지켜본 대로, 북한 측 설명에는 해변가를 따라 산책 도중 20분만에 3.3킬로미터를 주파한 중년의 한 여성이 희생자로 등장하고 있다.

 

¶8. (SBU) Even those usually sympathetic to the North have criticized the DPRK’s callous response. The leftist Hankyoreh newspaper asserted the DPRK should “take responsibility for the incident” and the opposition Democratic Party described the North’s response as “extreme.” Initially muted, public reaction has grown sharper, even from the pro-engagement crowd.

8.(민감하나 미분류) 북한에 평소 동정적 입장이던 사람들마저 북측의 냉혹한 대응을 비판해오고 있다. 좌파성향 한겨레 신문은 북한이 사건의 책임을 져야 한다고 주장했으며, 야당인 민주당은 북측 대응을 지나쳤다고 표현했다. 처음에는 잠잠했던 국민들은 물론 발포(교전) 찬성자들의 반응도 더욱 날카로워졌다.

 

비난의 포화를 받는 현대 아산

¶9. (SBU) Hyundai Asan, the company running the Kumgang tours, has received criticism for its lack of safety precautions at the site. TV and newspapers have repeatedly presented the photo showing the low, easily-passable sand berm at the ocean end of the fence dividing the resort from the restricted military area. Even where there is a fence, it does not have barbed wire customarily used to designate controlled military areas. The few warning signs were too inconspicuous to be noticed by many visitors.

9.(민감하나 미분류) 금강산 관광을 운영하는 회사인 현대 아산은 안전예방 미흡에 대해 비난 받아왔다. 텔레비전과 신문들은 군사 통제 지역과 리조트를 갈라놓는 바다쪽 울타리의 끝에 위치한 낮고 쉽게 지나갈 수 있는 모래 둔덕 사진을 반복해서 보여주었다. 심지어 울타리가 있는 곳에는 군사 통제 지역임을 표시하기 위해 관례상 사용되던 철조망조차 없다. 경고 표지도 거의 없었기에 많은 방문자들이 알아채지 못할 정도였다.

 

¶10. (SBU) Hyundai Asan officials admitted that there had been past instances in which tourists had crossed into military zones, though on those occasions no one had been injured (North Korean guards would detain the offenders briefly and demand that they delete any pictures). According to South Korean media reports, on the day of the incident Hyundai Asan decided to send an additional group of 350 South Korean tourists to Mt. Kumgang without notifying them of the accident, even though by this time the company knew about the shooting.

10.(SBU) 비록 아무도 부상 입지 않았지만, 관광객들이 군사 지역으로 건너갔던 과거 사례들이 있었음을 현대 아산 임원들이 인정했다. (북한 경비병들이 침입자들을 잠시 구금하고 촬영 사진들을 모두 지우도록 요구 했을 것이다) 남한의 언론 보도에 따르면 사건 당일 현대 아산은 총격 사건을 알고 있었음에도 그것에 대해 알리지 않고 추가로 350명의 한국 관광객들을 금강산에 보내기로 결정했다.

 

¶11. (C) While the long-term impact of this criticism and the stand-off over the fact-finding team is not clear, the future does not look very bright for further development at Mt. Kumgang at this point–not to mention prospective tourism projects such as Mt. Baekdu, which the Roh Moo-hyun government, overreaching, had said would start by mid-2008. While the government has not suspended tours to Kaesong City, some would-be participants are cancelling their reservations. Hyundai Asan could conceivably take a significant financial hit if tours to the North were to go out of vogue.

11.(기밀) 이러한 비판이 장기적으로 미칠 영향과 교착 상태에 빠진 진상 조사가 명확히 드러나지 않고 있는 한편, 노무현 정부가 2008년 중반까지는 시작하겠다고 말한 바 있는 백두산 등 향후 관광 프로젝트는 물론이고 금강산의 추가 개발의 미래도 그리 밝아 보이지 않는다. 정부가 개성 관광을 중단 시키지는 않았지만 몇몇 관광 예정자들은 그들의 예약을 취소하고 있다. 만약 북한 관광이 인기를 잃게 된다면 현대 아산측은 심각한 재정적 타격을 입을 수도 있음은 상상할 수 있는 바다.

 

¶12. (C) For the time being, however, Hyundai Asan–unlike the ROKG–remains able to enter the Mt. Kumgang resort and continues to have undisclosed conversations with DPRK officials. Whether the company’s long years of cultivating relationships with the North pay off with any progress remains to be seen.

12.(기밀) 그러나 현대 아산은 한국정부와 달리 당분간 금강산 리조트에 갈 수 있는 상태이고 계속해서 북한 관리들과 비공개 대화를 하고 있다. 여러해 동안 북측과의 관계를 돈독히 해온 사측이 얼마나 진전된 성과를 낼 수 있는지 여부는 아직 알 수 없다.

 

정부 역시 비판 받음

¶13. (C) The Lee administration’s response to the incident continues to receive criticism. President Lee himself reportedly took his national security team to task for taking 110 minutes to notify him of the shooting. Some criticized the President’s decision to go through with his olive-branch speech at the National Assembly even though he had learned about the incident 30 minutes earlier. Unification Minister Kim explained to the Ambassador that President Lee chose to do so because of the speech’s importance and because he did not want to pass up the rare opportunity to address the National Assembly. He decided not to mention the incident in his speech both because of the uncertainty surrounding it and because it would have been awkward to mix it with an offer to open dialogue with North Korea. Minister Kim did not offer reasons for the delay in notifying President Lee of the incident.

13.(기밀) 사건에 대한 이명박 정부의 대응도 계속해서 비판 받고 있다. 총격사건을 보고 받는 데 110분이 걸린 것에 대해 이명박 대통령이 국가 안보 팀을 직접 소집했다고 전해진다. 몇몇은 비록 대통령이 30분 전에 사건 보고를 받았음에도 국회에서 그가 화해 연설을 하기로 한 결정을 비판한다. 대통령이 ‘그렇게 하기’로 결정한 것은, 연설의 중요성은 물론 국회에서 연설할 드문 기회를 놓치고 싶지 않은 그의 바람 때문이었다고 통일부 김 장관이 대사에게 설명했다. 그는 사건을 둘러싼 불확실성과, 북한과의 대화에 그것이 섞이면 곤란해 질 염려로 인해 연설에서는 언급하지 않기로 결정했다. 김장관은 이대통령으로의 사건 보고가 지체된 이유는 밝히지 않았다.

VERSHBOW
버시바우

저작권자ⓒ 위키리크스 한국(공유 허용)-무단복제, 전재 금지

원문

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 001417 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/19/2017 
TAGS: KN KS PGOV
SUBJECT: MT. KUMGANG SHOOTING AND ITS AFTERMATH BODE POORLY 
FOR INTER-KOREAN RELATIONS 
 
Classified By: Amb. Alexander Vershbow. Reasons 1.4(b/d) 
 
¶1.    (C) SUMMARY: ROK Unification Minister Kim Ha-joong told 
the Ambassador that growing anger in South Korea about the 
DPRK response to the Mt. Kumgang shooting incident could 
produce further deterioration in North-South relations and 
perhaps even affect the Six-Party Talks.  He urged the U.S. 
to help persuade North Korea to allow a South Korean 
investigative team to visit the site of the shooting.  In 
other areas, such as economic development and implementation 
of summit agreements, he said the ROKG would be patient with 
the DPRK.  Meanwhile, ROK media continued to feature stories 
critical of the North's account of the Mt. Kumgang shooting, 
tour company Hyundai Asan, and the ROKG response.  End Summary 
 
------------------------------------------- 
MOU Urges USG to Help Limit Kumgang Fallout 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.    (C) ROK Unification Minister Kim Ha-joong told the 
Ambassador at a July 14 meeting that, if it continues to 
grow, public outrage in South Korea about North Korea's 
handling of the July 11 shooting of a South Korean tourist at 
the Mt. Kumgang resort could adversely affect long-term 
inter-Korean relations and even impact the Six-Party Talks. 
The public was already angry about the DPRK's implausible 
account of the incident, its dismissive response to his 
Ministry's repeated requests to allow a fact-finding 
investigative team to visit Mt. Kumgang, and its demand for 
an apology from the ROK.  He said there was no indication the 
DPRK was prepared to address the matter constructively, 
adding that he did not anticipate the North would change its 
stance in a way that would assuage the South Korean public. 
 
¶3.    (C) Until the DPRK cooperates with the fact-finding 
team, Minister Kim said, it was quite possible that public 
anger with North Korea would increase and inter-Korean 
relations would further deteriorate.  There could even be a 
spillover effect impacting the Six-Party Talks and U.S. 
bilateral relations with the DPRK. 
 
¶4.    (C) Emphasizing the ROKG's obligation to find out the 
truth, Minister Kim urged the U.S. to use all available 
channels--the New York channel included--to persuade the DPRK 
to cooperate with his government's efforts to investigate the 
shooting.  He also suggested that the U.S. indirectly hint 
that the North's handling of the incident could affect the 
DPRK's delisting from the State Sponsors of Terror List.  The 
Ambassador said the U.S. shared Koreans' outrage at the 
shooting incident and the North's response, and said he would 
recommend that the USG press the DPRK to agree to an ROK 
fact-finding mission. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
ROK Unyielding on Fact-Finding, Patient in Other Areas 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶5.    (C) Regarding post-incident ROK policy toward Kaesong 
Industrial Complex (KIC) and Kaesong City tours, Minister Kim 
said there were no plans to suspend activities as at Mt. 
Kumgang at this point, although he thought it possible that 
tour operator Hyundai Asan may be reevaluating safety 
measures for the Kaesong City tours.  For the time being, the 
ROKG would push strongly for a fact-finding mission 
pertaining to the Kumgang shooting while continuing to 
promote economic cooperation at the KIC. 
 
¶6.    (C) Minister Kim said he was not too concerned about 
the negative Rodong Shinmun reaction to President Lee's July 
11 National Assembly address, since it did not constitute an 
"official" response.  He also said the ROKG was prepared to 
negotiate implementation of those measures in the 6/15/2000 
and 10/4/2007 summit declarations that it deemed feasible. 
He said these negotiations would be drawn out and difficult 
once they began, so the ROKG would wait patiently for the 
DPRK to drop its demand that the ROK commit to implementation 
of the two agreements in their entirety and return to the 
negotiating table. 
 
------------------------- 
Media and Public Response 
------------------------- 
 
¶7.    (SBU) South Korean media reports, meanwhile, continued 
to undermine DPRK claims pertaining to the incident.  The 
latest eyewitness to emerge suggests the time of the shooting 
was at about 5:20 a.m., some 30 minutes later than originally 
reported.  Sunrise that day was at about 5:12 a.m.  An 
earlier eyewitness report indicated there may have been only 
two shots fired rather than additional warning shots as 
claimed by North Korea.  As many have now derisively 
observed, the North Korean account has the victim, a 
middle-aged woman apparently taking a stroll down the beach, 
covering 3.3 kilometers in 20 minutes. 
 
¶8.    (SBU) Even those usually sympathetic to the North have 
criticized the DPRK's callous response.  The leftist 
Hankyoreh newspaper asserted the DPRK should "take 
responsibility for the incident" and the opposition 
Democratic Party described the North's response as "extreme." 
 Initially muted, public reaction has grown sharper, even 
from the pro-engagement crowd. 
 
----------------------- 
Hyundai Asan Under Fire 
----------------------- 
 
¶9.    (SBU) Hyundai Asan, the company running the Kumgang 
tours, has received criticism for its lack of safety 
precautions at the site.  TV and newspapers have repeatedly 
presented the photo showing the low, easily-passable sand 
berm at the ocean end of the fence dividing the resort from 
the restricted military area.  Even where there is a fence, 
it does not have barbed wire customarily used to designate 
controlled military areas.  The few warning signs were too 
inconspicuous to be noticed by many visitors. 
 
¶10.   (SBU) Hyundai Asan officials admitted that there had 
been past instances in which tourists had crossed into 
military zones, though on those occasions no one had been 
injured (North Korean guards would detain the offenders 
briefly and demand that they delete any pictures).  According 
to South Korean media reports, on the day of the incident 
Hyundai Asan decided to send an additional group of 350 South 
Korean tourists to Mt. Kumgang without notifying them of the 
accident, even though by this time the company knew about the 
shooting. 
 
¶11.    (C) While the long-term impact of this criticism and 
the stand-off over the fact-finding team is not clear, the 
future does not look very bright for further development at 
Mt. Kumgang at this point--not to mention prospective tourism 
projects such as Mt. Baekdu, which the Roh Moo-hyun 
government, overreaching, had said would start by mid-2008. 
While the government has not suspended tours to Kaesong City, 
some would-be participants are cancelling their reservations. 
 Hyundai Asan could conceivably take a significant financial 
hit if tours to the North were to go out of vogue. 
 
¶12.    (C) For the time being, however, Hyundai Asan--unlike 
the ROKG--remains able to enter the Mt. Kumgang resort and 
continues to have undisclosed conversations with DPRK 
officials.  Whether the company's long years of cultivating 
relationships with the North pay off with any progress 
remains to be seen. 
 
-------------------------- 
Government Also Criticized 
-------------------------- 
 
¶13.    (C) The Lee administration's response to the incident 
continues to receive criticism.  President Lee himself 
reportedly took his national security team to task for taking 
110 minutes to notify him of the shooting.  Some criticized 
the President's decision to go through with his olive-branch 
speech at the National Assembly even though he had learned 
about the incident 30 minutes earlier.  Unification Minister 
Kim explained to the Ambassador that President Lee chose to 
do so because of the speech's importance and because he did 
not want to pass up the rare opportunity to address the 
National Assembly.  He decided not to mention the incident in 
his speech both because of the uncertainty surrounding it and 
because it would have been awkward to mix it with an offer to 
open dialogue with North Korea.  Minister Kim did not offer 
reasons for the delay in notifying President Lee of the 
incident. 
VERSHBOW